El Niño or Super El Niño?
Why Weather Predictions and the Science of Forecasting Matters
June 17, 2026 — Could this winter become the next great Super El Niño year? Scientists think it’s possible. But predicting what that might mean for skiers, snow lovers, farmers, and communities downstream depends on a vast network of satellites, snow measurements, climate models, and researchers. At a moment when many federal science programs are facing cuts, the potential arrival of a Super El Niño underscores just how valuable—and vulnerable—our forecasting systems have become.
At WWA SnowSchool we’ve written extensively about the field of snow science and its important perspective on why seasonal forecasts and predictions matter. If something big is coming your way weather-wise, it’s worth getting a heads up. The announcement of the arrival of El Niño and the projection of a possible forthcoming “Super El Niño” event makes this point yet again and in dramatic fashion.
Forecasting a potential El Niño or Super El Niño event relies on decades of public investment in climate research, weather monitoring, satellite observations, snow science, and forecasting institutions. Today, many of those scientific programs face unprecedented funding cuts and program dismantling, threatening the very systems that help communities prepare for floods, droughts, wildfires, extreme storms, and changing snowpack conditions.
So What Exactly Is a Super El Niño?
First off, in quick review, El Niño describes the global weather pattern that follows when ocean temps in the equatorial Pacific are warmer than average (0.5°C increase). These events occur every few years, and this is the opposite of La Niña which happens when ocean temps are cooler than average. During a typical El Niño winter in North America, the Pacific jet stream blasts across the southern United States bringing above average precipitation, while the northern United States is drier and warmer than average.
A “super El Niño” is an unofficial, yet widely used term for an unusually strong El Niño event. Meteorologists generally use this label when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rise to 2°C or more above the long-term average. These events are much rarer and are associated with extreme weather (see the 1877-78 Super El Niño) and, yes, snow…
To our knowledge, this is the first time the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has included Strength Level Probability in its monitoring and prediction materials. The graph below shows that by OND (Oct-Nov-Dec period), there is a greater than 60% chance that this will grow into a Very Strong El Niño.
Typical El Niño and La Niña winter patterns affect the Pacific jet stream differently, shifting where warmer, colder, wetter, and drier conditions are more likely across North America.
This image compares emerging 2026 sea surface temperatures with those of the historic 1877 El Niño which caused widespread drought and global famine .
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a high likelihood that El Niño conditions will strengthen through fall and winter, with a significant chance of reaching “very strong” levels.
“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is.”
– UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a video in June 2026.
Meet the Three Amigos of Super El Niño: Analog Winters from 1983, 1998 and 2016
Powder, Rain, or Drought? Super El Niño winters have delivered everything from deep Sierra snowpacks to devastating floods. Looking at past winters gives us clues about what might be ahead.
On his own blog, WWA Board Member, retired snow scientist and snow-to-flow guru Ron Abramovich explains how he tracks Pacific Ocean temperatures over time to help pluck out analog years– past years with similar patterns that can provide the basis for a seasonal forecast. In 2025 this forecast strategy proved wildly accurate in terms of the snowpack, but last winter, due to the warm temperatures, not so much… Still the Earth’s oceans drive our weather, so studying its trends is one of the best clues we have for what’s to come. In a recent radio interview, Abramovich elaborated on this.
This graph of ocean sea temperatures shows the relative strength of each El Niño and La Niña year, along with the Neutral years. The Very Strong El Niño years are circled. Keep in mind the years shown are the Fall when El Niño was building and winter when it was felt in terms of winter precipitation and spring/summer runoff. For example, 82-83 is the Fall 1982 and Winter 1983, which is also referred to as Water Year 1983 that started on October 1, 1982, and includes the runoff through September 30, 1983.
The Oceanic Niño Index tracks sea surface temperature departures in the equatorial Pacific over time. The circled years show past strong or very strong El Niño winters that can help scientists identify possible analog years.
Curious about the difference between El Niño and “Super El Niño” analog years and snow in your local mountains? Try this-
If you are interested in zeroing in on the exact pattern for your local watershed and community, this is something you can try on your own in these simple steps:
- For “Super El Niño” analog year snowpack levels click the link for the Interactive Map of snow-water equivalent levels on April 1st for 2016, then 1998 and then 1983
- For a comparison to moderate El Niño years try these three analog years: 1987, 2003, and 2010
- Zoom in on your location / community
- Click the SNOTEL station nearest to your location such that the graph of snowpack levels becomes visible (click the graph to see it in a separate tab)
Snowpack outcomes varied widely during past strong El Niño analog years, showing why local watershed-level data matters more than a single national forecast.
Studying Analog Years with SnowSchool’s Snowpack Prediction Contest
Through SnowSchool thousands of kids, students, adults and educators across the country are studying trends like the “Double Dip La Niña” Winter and “Super El Niño” analog years when they engage in our Snowpack Prediction Challenge. The concept behind this activity is relatively simple: participants are given the same challenge facing snow scientists- make a prediction about the peak amount of snow their local mountains will receive during the coming winter. To make their prediction students use current conditions data, short term forecasts, the full period of snowpack level records, the historical medians/averages and also analog years. And of course, the key at SnowSchool is that this is combined with their real world field experience in their local winter wildlands. And at SnowSchool, prizes are given out for the most accurate predictions!
Through SnowSchool, students connect climate and snow science concepts to real-world observations in their local winter wildlands.
At just one 2026 SnowSchool location for example, in Central Montana, the SnowSchool program at the Montana Discovery Foundation took over 1,000 students out into their local public winter wildlands near Helena, MT this winter. Afterwards, they asked their students, “What do you think the maximum snowpack depth measurement and the maximum snow water equivalency measurement will be over the course of the winter?”
This activity generally simulates the approach snow hydrologists take when making snowpack and streamflow forecasts. Once predictions are submitted the students and teachers track winter storms, snow accumulation and melting using online resources well into April, May and even early June. The result is a 3-4 month learning experience and snow hydrology exploration!
“Our SnowSchool students were able to take what they learned about snowpack and SNOTEL sites and apply it to their daily lives. Many of them come from ranching and farming families, so they could see firsthand how this year’s snowpack affects water resources and what that means for their livelihoods.”
– Mari Lin Carroll, SnowSchool Educator, Montana Discovery Foundation
Photos courtesy of Montana Discovery Foundation
This challenge concludes with a combination of local in-person presentations and wrap-up videos that examine what happened in watersheds across the west, what snowpack levels (snow drought vs abundance) mean for the students’ local community and the impact of climate change on mountain snow. Extending our SnowSchool students’ learning experience and connecting it back to the classroom in this manner ensures that SnowSchool makes good on its aspiration to foster ecological literacy among our youngest generations.
Help Improve Forecasts from Your Own Backyard
Contribute observations of snow, weather, and changing conditions through citizen science programs like SnowSchool’s own participatory science projects. Every measurement helps scientists better understand mountain snowpack and improve future forecasts.
Speak Up for Science
Forecasting a potential Super El Niño depends on satellites, weather stations, stream gauges, climate models, and scientists who make sense of it all. Help protect the research, funding, and monitoring programs that communities rely on by urging Congress to support the Science Integrity Act and sustained investment in weather and climate science.
Send In Your “Way-Too-Early” Snowpack Prediction
Think you know what this winter has in store? It may be early, but submit your snowpack prediction and compare your forecast with winter enthusiasts from across the country. The closest prediction wins a prize! Find out if you have what it takes to be a snow hydrologist!
