Will there be any water in our rivers this summer?
Snow to Flow with National SnowSchool Director Kerry McClay, renowned Idaho Water Scientist Ron Abramovich, and American Whitewater’s Tom O’Keefe
April 7, 2026 — Now that the snow season is largely (and very prematurely) behind us, the outdoor community has begun to ponder the fate of western river flows this year. Given the historic snow drought and the fact that upwards of 70-80% of our water supply in the Western US comes from mountain snow, it’s fair to be concerned about how much water there might be for everything from rafting to farming. To talk more about it, we checked in WWA’s own Ron Abramovich for both a winter recap and a look at this summer’s future.
What happened this winter?
Back in November, many of us had hopes for an above average winter (or at least a near-average winter) based on a study of analog years and Pacific ocean temperature patterns. But by January (see map, right), the distribution of mountain snow was notably ominous. A temperature-driven snow drought meant that in low to mid elevations, the precipitation fell as rain instead of snow. So while some watersheds were showing historically low snowpack levels, a small handful of others—in colder and higher elevations—were above average. This unusual pattern continued, and snowpack levels never took a turn for the better.
Adding to our problems, by mid-March, it became clear that Spring was arriving ahead of schedule. Our western mountain snowpack usually peaks its Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in early April. This year, however, the snowpack peaked much earlier in mid-March under the early-season Heat Dome. At SnowSchool, students began finding isothermal snowpack temps weeks earlier than normal.
An easy way to zero in on temperature as the primary culprit here is to look at the Water Year to Date map. This map shows that (generally speaking) average precipitation fell across the West from October through March. But when you put this side by side with the snowpack level map, the colors don’t match, and the snowpack is obviously dire. The problem was that with these warmer temperatures, the precipitation didn’t fall as snow this year, and with all that rain, we don’t have anything near a normal snowpack.
If you want to check out your own local watershed and see how the current snowpack compares to the historical median, check out the interactive SNOTEL map and zoom in on your location.
In a warming climate, declining lower elevation snowpack was something our SnowSchool partner David Foster-Hill at Community Snow Obs referenced in his November prediction for SnowSchool’s winter forecast. He pointed out that lower elevation SNOTEL locations, like Hoggs Pass in Oregon, are generally trending downward through the years even during typically snowier La Nina winters.
“Our colder, higher elevation locations have a relatively nice ‘buffer’ to a few degrees of warming. Our lower elevation sites in the Pacific Northwest decidedly do NOT.”
This November prediction proved depressingly accurate with Hoggs Pass SNOTEL posting a startlingly low peak Snow-Water Equivalent of 8.3 inches in 2026.
One of many impacts of all of this is that some rivers that are historically popular spring runs for rafters and paddlers appear to have already peaked and declined in the winter instead of reaching their typical paddler-friendly peak flows in the spring. See the example provided by Ron of the Bruneau and Owyhee rivers that flow through Nevada, Idaho, and Oregon. This unusual scenario will prove challenging for river runners trying to plan their spring and summer adventures.
What boaters can do about low river flows: Stay Raft-Ready and use these resources!
Accurate snowpack and streamflow data are critical for planning safe recreation (and many other things, including agriculture and reservoir management, just to name a few), which is why WWA and our partners at American Whitewater advocate for funding these important government programs. Below, we catchup with with Thomas O’Keefe, Senior Policy and Science Director at American Whitewater, on the river. Then we provide links to some of our top resources to help you navigate a challenging season for river runners.
Below are some resources Tom referenced, including American Whitewater’s cool map where you can zoom in to see how high or low your local waterway is flowing.
Below are some resources Ron referenced to help you stay river ready!
What are some of the current streamflow forecasts in specific regions across the West?
The Western US is currently dealing with widespread snow drought, and this winter (December, January, and February) was ranked as the first or second warmest on record for every major river basin in the West. A recent late-season winter storm is beneficial for slowing the melt and adding moisture. Ideally, a cool, wet spring with additional storms is required to sustain water in the rivers and prevent a repeat of the near-record dry April-May-June precipitation experienced last spring. But currently, well-below normal runoff is forecasted for major reservoirs and drainages:
Additional snow drought updates by region:
- In March, the greatest snowpack deficits in the Western US were found in the Cascade Range of Oregon and Washington, with around 90% of SNOTEL Stations in a snow drought.
- Sierra Nevada: An early melt-out occurred in California following a record hot, dry March 2026, which caused rapid snowpack decrease. Statewide, the snowpack is just 18% of average, and on April 1st, the California Department of Water Resources found “no measurable snow” at key survey locations.
- Arizona and New Mexico have significant wildland fire potential throughout the Spring of 2026 due to snow drought conditions.
- In the intermountain region, Utah’s snowpack peaked 3 weeks early and was the lowest on record. Idaho hit a new record low snowpack in February, and by March, the winter ranked as one of the 10 lowest snowpacks on record.
