Episode 2: Avalanche Forecasting in a Time of Uncertainty

Release date: March 10, 2026 

Avalanche forecasts are one of the most trusted safety tools in winter recreation and travel. Built daily by professionals who wake before dawn, dig into the snowpack, analyze storms, track wind, and translate complex data into clear public guidance that shapes life-or-death decisions for as many as 30 million people.

This episode of Trail Break Radio takes a hard look at the state of avalanche forecasting in the United States and asks the question: are we protecting the system that tries to protect us?

Hiring freezes. Budget uncertainty. Federal staffing cuts. Across the Forest Service, avalanche centers have been asked to do more with less, even as the stakes remain as high as ever. 

This winter has been particularly challenging, with many lives lost to avalanches across North America and Europe. These losses reverberate through the mountain community. They are a sobering reminder that even experienced recreationists navigating familiar terrain are operating in complex, ever-changing conditions. Avalanche forecasting cannot eliminate risk; it can help us make informed decisions. 

But how resilient is the system we rely on? How is it funded from year to year? Can avalanche forecasting withstand political and budget headwinds? And what will it take to sustain the daily work that helps keep our backcountry community informed?

We hold the families, partners, and communities affected by the recent avalanches across the West in our thoughts as we continue this conversation with a panel discussion from our 2025 Grassroots Advocacy Conference, featuring:

• Brody Leven, professional chairlift-free adventure skier (moderator)
• Caroline Miller, Executive Director of the Utah Avalanche Center 
• David Reichel, Executive Director of the Sierra Avalanche Center
• Scott Schell, Executive Director of the Northwest Avalanche Center

Whether you’re whitewater rafting, rock climbing, or backcountry skiing, risk is inherent in outdoor adventure. For winter recreationists, avalanche conditions are among the most serious and dynamic hazards we face.

There’s a ritual every backcountry traveler knows. Before you click into your bindings, before you drop into that north-facing bowl, before you decide whether today is the day to push a little farther: You check the avalanche forecast.